October FOMC Odds Shift to Fed Rate Hold, Supporting Bitcoin

Polymarket odds for the October FOMC meeting have shifted sharply towards a Federal Reserve rate hold. Earlier in the cycle, traders assigned more than 60% odds to a 25-basis-point hike, while the September 30 market showed a 57% chance of no change and a 42% chance of a hike. The latest October FOMC odds put the probability of a hold at 84%, against 16% for a 25-basis-point increase. The contract has recorded nearly $23 million in volume and is due to settle on October 28. The change followed comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said policymakers had time to assess incoming economic data before deciding on further tightening. Other outcomes, including a rate cut or a hike of at least 50 basis points, remain close to zero. Williams has not ruled out another increase later in 2026. Polymarket places the probability of a later 25-basis-point hike at 66%, down from about 74% earlier in the week. This suggests traders expect a delay in tightening rather than a clear dovish policy pivot. A higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook can pressure Bitcoin by making cash and government bonds more attractive, raising borrowing costs and reducing liquidity for risk assets. Bitcoin nevertheless rose above $86,000 earlier in September, supported by exchange-traded fund flows, improved regulatory sentiment and short covering. The latest October FOMC odds may provide temporary support for BTC and broader crypto risk appetite, but traders should monitor inflation, employment data, Treasury yields, ETF flows and further Fed guidance because rate expectations can change quickly before the meeting.