Study: Offshore prediction markets drew up to $34B from Americans; CFTC rules loom

Published: 2026-06-12 17:57:08 |

A study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets estimates that Americans traded up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets over a 12-month period ending April 2026. The research compares offshore platforms (not serving U.S. users and not regulated by the CFTC) with regulated U.S. platforms and concludes that 12.5%–31.5% of all U.S. prediction market volume occurs on offshore prediction markets. The study’s author, Rutgers professor and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee member Harry Crane, analyzed major offshore exchanges that are prohibited from serving U.S. users. He found $11–$34 billion in offshore activity attributable to U.S. users—often via workarounds such as VPN access. Polymarket, the largest offshore platform evaluated, reportedly attributed roughly $10.6–$26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion trailing-12-month trading volume to U.S. users, despite U.S. access being technically blocked. The coalition also estimates that if relative market shares stay constant, U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could reach about $133 billion in annual volume by 2030. The findings arrive as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposes new rules for prediction markets, including bans on certain contract types tied to outcomes involving war or assassination. CFTC chair Mike Selig has defended the regulator’s jurisdiction, while lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren have questioned oversight capacity.

Neutral

This is more of a regulatory-market-structure signal than a direct crypto price catalyst. The study quantifies significant U.S. participation in offshore prediction markets (up to $34B over 12 months; 12.5%–31.5% share; possible $133B annual by 2030). That could increase attention and volumes in the prediction-market niche, but it also strengthens the case for tighter U.S. oversight. At the same time, the article ties the findings to CFTC proposed rules that would ban certain controversial contract types (e.g., outcomes involving war or assassination). In past U.S. regulatory turnarounds for crypto-adjacent segments, traders often react with short-term volatility around headlines, while longer-term impact depends on whether enforcement leads to clear market access and compliance pathways. For traders, the immediate implication is headline-driven sentiment: scrutiny of offshore platforms and workarounds (VPN access) can pressure activity levels and reshape liquidity. Over the long run, clearer rules could either concentrate volume into regulated venues (supporting smoother, more compliant liquidity) or push users offshore further if implementation is contested—so overall the net effect on the broader crypto market is likely limited, hence a neutral outlook.