Study: Offshore prediction markets draw up to $34B from Americans; CFTC rules dey come

One study wey Coalition for Prediction Markets commish estimate say Americans trade up to $34 billion for offshore prediction markets inside one 12-month period wey end for April 2026. The research compare offshore platforms (wey no dey serve U.S. users and no dey regulated by CFTC) with regulated U.S. platforms and conclude say 12.5%–31.5% of all U.S. prediction market volume dey happen for offshore markets. The study author, Harry Crane wey be Rutgers professor and member for CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee, analyze major offshore exchanges wey dem ban from serving U.S. users. He find $11–$34 billion for offshore activity wey fit be traced to U.S. users—many times through workarounds like VPN access. Polymarket, the biggest offshore platform wey dem evaluate, reportedly attribute about $10.6–$26.7 billion of im $55.6 billion trailing-12-month trading volume to U.S. users, even though access from the U.S. dey technically blocked. The coalition also estimate say if market shares remain the same, U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets fit reach about $133 billion in annual volume by 2030. The findings land as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) dey propose new rules for prediction markets, including ban for some contract types wey tie to outcomes about war or assassination. CFTC chair Mike Selig don defend the regulator's jurisdiction, while lawmakers like Sen. Elizabeth Warren don question their oversight capacity.