Bitcoin Slips After Trump Rejects Iran Strait Deal; Oil Jumps to $90
US stock futures fell after President Trump rejected Iran’s counter-proposal linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Dow futures dropped by 450+ points, while oil jumped to around $90 per barrel on fears of supply disruption.
For crypto traders, the key thread is cross-asset risk pricing. The article revisits Iran’s April 9 idea to use Bitcoin for oil-tanker transit payments through the Strait, which negotiations failed to deliver by April 12—then Bitcoin (and other digital assets) slid. Trump’s latest rejection is pushing markets further into a risk-off stance, pressuring Bitcoin as the US dollar strengthens.
Prediction markets show uncertainty rather than a war consensus, with odds for US military action against Iran staying below 50% on Polymarket. Still, traders are repricing downside risk across equities and crypto as oil volatility feeds inflation concerns and can amplify macro-driven swings. Watch for whether Bitcoin’s volume and correlation with crude tighten during oil moves, which would signal macro funds treating Bitcoin as part of the geopolitical trade rather than an isolated asset.
Bearish
Trump’s rejection escalates US–Iran military risk headlines, which pushes markets into a broader risk-off regime. As the US dollar strengthens, Bitcoin faces additional downside pressure. Even though prediction markets do not show a high consensus of war (Polymarket odds remain <50%), traders are still repricing downside across both equities and crypto, with oil volatility feeding inflation fears that can increase macro-driven swings. Short-term, this setup favors downside continuation and higher correlation with crude; any bullish offset would likely require a concrete new Bitcoin-linked sanctions/energy deal narrative, which is not confirmed here.