Onchain gambling stays resilient: $14B Q1, TRM Labs finds
TRM Labs says onchain gambling defied the broader crypto pullback, posting $14 billion of quarterly volume in Q1 2026 (after a record $15B in Q4 2025). For 2025, onchain gambling reached $51 billion, with repeat users and stablecoin flows supporting demand.
TRM Labs also reports a shift in the mix: prediction markets grew faster in early 2026 and overtook onchain gambling for the first time. In Q1 2026, prediction markets recorded $36.6 billion in volume versus gambling’s $14 billion, while total 2025 scale put gambling ($51B) and prediction markets ($54B) at comparable levels heading into 2026.
Onchain gambling volume remained near record levels through the 2025–2026 market correction, with neither gambling nor prediction markets showing meaningful drawdowns. TRM attributes the strength to a “sticky and expanding” user base.
On risks, TRM says both sectors increasingly share stablecoin infrastructure, but financial crime exposure differs. Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) face more insider-trading scrutiny, while gambling platforms (e.g., Stake, WINk, Rollbit) are more exposed to money-laundering risks.
User behavior data: over 2 million personal wallets interacted with gambling platforms from Jan 2022 to Mar 2026. High Rollers are only 6.3% of wallets but drove 91.8% of gambling volume since 2022. Growth, however, is also coming from casual bettors—monthly volume rose from $17M (Jan 2022) to $188M (Mar 2026).
Bullish
TRM Labs’ data suggests onchain gambling is not merely surviving the market slump but maintaining near-record volumes (Q1 2026: $14B) while also benefiting from expanding participation. For traders, that typically supports a more constructive sentiment toward crypto consumer/app activity and onchain stablecoin usage, especially if risk-off flows otherwise hit broader narratives.
In the short term, resilient volume can act as a “floor signal” for related ecosystem tokens and onchain activity, even if BTC/ETH volatility remains high. In the long term, the convergence of gambling and prediction markets onto shared stablecoin infrastructure can improve liquidity and user onboarding, though regulatory and compliance pressure (insider trading vs. money laundering controls) may shape which venues attract capital.
Compared with past cycles where onchain revenue dries up during drawdowns, this report highlights sticky user behavior and continued throughput—often associated with steadier network usage rather than a rapid demand collapse.