ONDO rejects $0.47: bears target $0.26 as OI drops
ONDO has turned bearish after failing to break above the $0.47 local high (May 9). Despite gaining about +12% over the past week, the coin is down 4.78% at the time of reporting.
Derivatives data is weakening. Open Interest for ONDO fell 8.93% in the last 24 hours, a sign that speculators may be exiting while waiting for the next strong move. This aligns with a previously flagged bearish 1-day structure.
AMBCrypto’s technical view suggested a rally toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $0.413, with only a small chance of a push toward $0.47 before bearish continuation. That expectation partly played out: ONDO briefly moved up past $0.413 but was rejected at $0.47.
A potential catalyst for selling risk was also cited: a team-linked wallet moved roughly $63.9M worth of ONDO tokens to Coinbase, which could increase sell pressure.
Traders’ chart-level plan (from an X post) emphasizes invalidation and downside targets. The bearish setup would be invalidated if price breaks above the descending trendline and holds above $0.42. On the downside, the article points to $0.26 lows—areas where price consolidated in late April—as the key target.
On-chain confirmation also supported caution. A cost basis distribution heatmap showed 161.7M ONDO tokens concentrated in the $0.455–$0.470 band, down from 268.6M prior to last Saturday’s swing failure pattern.
Overall, ONDO’s rejection at $0.47 plus falling Open Interest keeps the path of least resistance tilted toward $0.26 in the short term, unless $0.42–$0.47 resistance turns into support.
Bearish
The article frames ONDO’s move as a bearish continuation setup rather than a bullish reversal. Key evidence includes: (1) rejection at the $0.47 local high after a move above the $0.413 Fibonacci retracement, (2) a notable 8.93% drop in Open Interest, often seen when traders reduce risk and wait for direction, and (3) on-chain cost-basis concentration in the $0.455–$0.470 band, which can act as a supply/liquidity overhang if price can’t reclaim that area.
In the short term, these indicators typically increase the probability of a pullback toward the next well-defined liquidity pocket ($0.26). The proposed invalidation level ($0.42) matters for traders: a sustained break above it would weaken the bearish thesis.
Medium to long term, the cited wallet transfer (~$63.9M to Coinbase) is relevant mainly if it translates into realized selling/flow. If the market interprets that transfer as already “priced in,” the downside may be limited and ONDO could later rebuild a base. Similar patterns—price rejection at resistance combined with declining OI—have historically aligned with downside follow-through until either OI stabilizes or price reclaims the key resistance zone.