OPEC+ Raises Oil Output Quotas as Hormuz Closure Keeps Prices Elevated

OPEC+ raises oil output quotas by 188,000 bpd for June 2026 (excluding the UAE), marking its third supply increase. The decision follows the Strait of Hormuz closure since February 2026, tied to escalating Iran–U.S. tensions. Traders should note the core linkage: even with more OPEC+ supply planned, disrupted Middle East flows keep crude prices supported. The article describes Gulf production as only about 5%–10% of normal levels, with rerouting via alternative pipelines and a cautious “add supply, but manage constraints” stance by members. Prediction markets add nuance. The market for “Crude Oil Price Predictions by June” still prices a YES outcome for crude reaching $90 by end-June, with the probability reported unchanged after the OPEC+ decision. That implies traders may not expect an immediate drop in the $90-by-June scenario. Key watch items for the next sessions: any reopening or easing of the Strait of Hormuz, further OPEC+ production adjustments, and fresh Iran–U.S. geopolitical headlines. OPEC+ raises oil output quotas may therefore matter more through oil-market inflation expectations than through immediate volume effects.