US-Iran peace deal: April 30 odds collapse in prediction markets

Traders are losing confidence in the US-Iran peace proposal after President Donald Trump cast doubt on the latest Iran offer. In prediction markets, the probability of a permanent US-Iran peace agreement by April 30 has fallen to about 1.2%, from around 10% just 24 hours earlier. The proposal—relayed by Pakistan—would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but would push nuclear talks to later. Market repricing followed immediately: May 31 sits near 28.0%–28.5%, while June 30 is around 39.5%. The widening gap between April 30 and later contracts suggests traders expect any meaningful progress no earlier than late May. Liquidity is moderate, but moves can be sharp. Reported notional bets total roughly $5.3M, while actual USDC volume is about $854.5K. Moving the April 30 contract by 5 percentage points is estimated to cost around $27.7K, meaning single larger trades can swing prices—highlighted by a brief +6 point spike that did not hold. For crypto traders, the key signal is headline risk: US-Iran peace deal odds for April 30 are collapsing, so any White House or Iranian official confirmation could trigger fast repricing. Until credible alignment appears within the remaining days, risk sentiment may stay elevated.