Pantera’s Halving Cycle Forecast Realized as BTC Hits $119K
Pantera Capital’s November 2022 Bitcoin halving cycle forecast predicted BTC would reach $117,482 by August 11, 2025. Data from Coin Metrics via CNBC confirm BTC closed above $119,000 on that date, with the price near $120,000—up 660% from the $16,000 low. This outcome validates the Bitcoin halving cycle’s predictive power and highlights diminishing returns after each halving event. Institutional adoption has surged: US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold 1.49 million BTC (7.1% of supply) and public and private companies hold 1.36 million BTC. Some insiders, including Jason Williams and Pierre Rochard, argue that with 95% of Bitcoin mined, halving’s impact on circulating supply is now marginal, as demand shifts to retail investors, new ETP products and corporate reserves.
Bullish
The realization of Pantera Capital’s Bitcoin halving cycle forecast, with BTC climbing past $119,000, underscores the strength of halving-driven rallies. The 660% gain since the November 2022 low and growing institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate reserves combine to support bullish sentiment. In the short term, ETF inflows can drive rallies around halving events, while long-term supply reductions from halving cycles and continued institutional adoption can sustain upward momentum. Although some argue that halving’s impact may diminish as 95% of Bitcoin is mined, current demand dynamics from retail investors, new ETP products and corporate holdings should continue to underpin price growth.