Dan Morehead: BTC 43% Cheaper Than AI as Divergence Widens
Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead said the AI vs crypto gap is the largest divergence in history. He cited an AI sector index about 33% above its 4-year logarithmic trend, while BTC is roughly 43% below its historical trajectory.
Morehead argues BTC is “incredibly cheap” because capital has rotated toward AI tech sector stocks, where valuations reprice faster. Meanwhile, institutional participation in digital assets remains limited, despite improving US regulatory conditions and broader mainstream interest.
On BTC’s four-year supply cycle, he expects weakness in the near term, but a better outlook longer term. He also frames BTC as a scarcity hedge tied to inflation and fiat debasement.
For traders, the article points to a sideways BTC setup with a bearish Supertrend and a neutral RSI around 61. Key levels mentioned: resistance near $79.4k and $81.9k, support near ~$77.7k and $75.7k—constructive long-term, but cautious short-term.
Neutral
Morehead’s framework is broadly supportive for BTC over the longer run because he views the current valuation gap versus AI as a form of “cheapness,” and he expects BTC’s four-year supply-cycle dynamics to improve later. However, the same commentary also flags near-term weakness and points to a technically mixed-to-cautious setup (sideways action, bearish Supertrend, neutral RSI).
So, for trading, the immediate implication is range/volatility risk around the cited levels rather than a clear one-way breakout. Bulls may lean on the long-term narrative and scarcity/hedge thesis, but confirmation would likely need follow-through beyond the mentioned resistance zones for upside momentum.