PENGU jumps 10% on short squeeze as Pudgy Penguins NFT sales fall — relief bounce, not a trend reversal
PENGU, the utility token for the Pudgy Penguins NFT project, staged a roughly 10% intraday bounce after falling to $0.0061 on Feb 12 and trading near $0.0069 at press time. This short-lived rally coincided with Pudgy Penguins NFT floor prices holding around 4–4.5 ETH while weekly sales volume declined about 28%–31% across reports, signalling weaker NFT market demand. On-chain flows earlier showed net outflows from exchanges, but outflow strength has weakened compared with mid-2025 and did not prevent earlier price drops. Technicals remain bearish: PENGU broke key supports (notably the $0.0071 June 2025 swing low and prior $0.009 levels), on‑balance volume (OBV) shows predominant seller volume despite the bounce, and RSI is only moving toward neutral. Short-term H4 Fibonacci retracements suggest limited upside targets near $0.00741 and $0.008 local highs (about 7%–15% potential), but primary supports at $0.00855, $0.0054 and $0.0039 remain relevant if selling resumes. For traders: treat the recent move as a relief bounce rather than a confirmed reversal. Key risks include low liquidity, declining NFT floor prices and weak buying momentum. Avoid FOMO; consider waiting for restored OBV/volume confirmation and reclaimed structural supports before taking fresh long positions.
Bearish
Both articles describe a short-term price bounce for PENGU but agree on a prevailing bearish structure. Key negatives outweigh the temporary upside: breached multi-timeframe supports (including the June 2025 swing low), declining NFT floor prices and sales volume, and OBV signalling seller-dominant volume despite the rally. Chain data showing reduced exchange outflows compared with earlier in the year further weakens a narrative of strong accumulation. Technical resistance levels limit upside to modest retracements (~7%–15%), while multiple lower supports remain in play if selling resumes. For traders, this implies a high-probability continuation risk to the downside in the medium term; the recent move is best treated as a relief bounce. Short-term traders could scalp the rebound with tight stops and clear exit rules, but position traders should wait for regained structural support, improved volume/OBV and sustained NFT market recovery before initiating new longs.