Peter Brandt Warns Bitcoin Could Fall to $49,000
Bitcoin (BTC) is still in a downtrend after its October 2025 peak near $126,000. The price is around $66,000, and several analysts question whether the early-February dip to $60,000 marked the true bottom.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt says a weekly bear flag / rising wedge may be forming below the 18-week moving average (around $80,351). He argues the correction is not finished and a further BTC decline toward $49,285 remains possible. Brandt also rejects the idea that technical analysis fails for Bitcoin, saying BTC often respects classical charting patterns.
Other market participants echo the caution. Crypto Bullet expects the bear market could last another six to seven months and notes Bitcoin has not yet tested key bear-cycle levels, including the realized price area near $54,000 and the 200-week moving average around $59,280. Dan from CryptoQuant adds that typical “major bottom” signals have not appeared yet, making it premature to confirm $60,000 as the lowest point.
Key trading implications: resistance is cited near the 18-week MA, while volatility remains elevated (ATR referenced at ~8,876 points). Traders may watch for breakdown confirmation from the weekly pattern, as more downside could pressure dips before any sustained recovery.
Bearish
该报道的核心是：Peter Brandt认为BTC尚未完成下跌修正，周线看跌旗形/上升楔形可能把价格拖向约4.9万美元；同时其他分析师也未确认6万美元已见底，指出实现价格（约5.4万美元）、200周均线（约5.93万美元）等关键支撑尚未被有效测试，且“重大底部”信号尚未出现。整体信息更偏向“下跌尚未结束”，因此对市场短期情绪偏空。
从交易行为角度看，若价格在18周均线附近（约8.03万美元）反复受阻，并出现周线结构确认的跌破，通常会触发止损与减仓，导致反弹持续性变差、市场更易形成“先杀反弹再找支撑”的节奏。历史上在熊市尾段，当关键支撑未被测试且技术结构仍未扭转时，往往会出现二次探底或更深回撤；直到出现更明确的底部信号（例如多指标共振、成交/实现层面变化）才会提升反转概率。
中长期方面，若BTC最终确实跌向4.9万美元并完成更充分的洗盘，可能为后续反弹提供更好的位置；但在当下，基于报道给出的结构与指标解读，主导交易策略更应偏向风险控制与等待确认，而不是过早做多反转。