Peter Brandt: Bitcoin Parabola Broke — $25K Downside Warned
Veteran trader Peter Brandt says bitcoin’s long‑running parabolic uptrend on a logarithmic chart was breached after the post‑halving rally peaked in October. Brandt points out that BTC doubled to a reported $126,000 high in October before retreating below $90,000 and cutting through the fourth parabolic arc. He compares the cycle to prior post‑halving bull runs that delivered diminishing multiples (historically ~100x in early cycles, ~74x after 2016, ~8–10x after 2020) and were followed by deep bear-market pullbacks of roughly 70–80% from all‑time highs. From that pattern Brandt highlights a reference level — “20% of ATH = $25,240” — and argues the parabola breach opens the door to a severe decline toward the low‑$20,000s. The call is technical, based on log‑scale trend‑line support rather than on‑chain metrics or macro drivers. Traders should note the explicit downside target, the historical post‑halving decay thesis, and the parabolic support break when sizing positions, setting stops and managing risk.
Bearish
The analysis is explicitly technical and signals downside risk for BTC. Brandt identifies a breach of a long‑term parabolic support on a log chart — a pattern that historically preceded deep drawdowns (70–80% from ATH). He provides a concrete low‑$25k reference (20% of ATH) derived from past cycle decay, which increases the probability of substantial selling pressure as traders react. Short‑term impact: heightened volatility and likely further selling as leveraged longs are squeezed and risk managers trim exposure. Traders may see rapid price declines into support clusters and psychological levels if selling accelerates. Long‑term impact: Brandt frames this as part of cycle maturation (diminishing bull multiples), not the death of the asset, implying that while the path may include a deep drawdown, multi‑year recovery remains plausible. Overall, the immediate market bias is negative — prompting traders to tighten stops, reduce leverage, and consider downside protection or short strategies until price confirms re‑established support above the breached parabola.