Pi Network struggles as $0.17 supply zone caps recovery; bearish momentum persists
Pi Network (PI) rose 2.03% in 24 hours and saw higher volume after a technical update that progressed mainnet migration, introduced palm-print authentication beta, and continued validator rewards distribution. Despite these fundamentals, PI remains under selling pressure: the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is negative (-0.06) and hasn’t surpassed +0.05 since early December, while the MACD formed a bearish crossover on higher timeframes. Using the January drop from $0.216 to $0.150, Fibonacci retracements indicate a potential bounce to $0.19–$0.20 (61.8%–78.6% levels). However, repeated rejections at the $0.173/$0.17 supply zone and recent H4 setbacks suggest rallies will likely be sold. Traders are advised that longs are not warranted for swing positions—scalps only—unless PI clears $0.216, which would shift bias bullish. A retest of ~$0.20 could present a better short opportunity than current prices. Disclaimer: not financial advice.
Bearish
Despite on-chain and product updates (mainnet migration progress, palm-print beta, validator rewards), technical indicators show persistent selling pressure. CMF at -0.06 and a higher-timeframe MACD bearish crossover indicate capital outflows and downward momentum. Price has repeatedly rejected the $0.173–$0.17 supply zone; Fibonacci levels suggest a possible short-lived bounce to $0.19–$0.20, but history of selling at that area implies rallies will be faded. For traders, this signals higher probability of short or neutral outcomes: scalpers may trade volatility, swing traders should wait for a clear breakout above $0.216 to consider longs. This mirrors past altcoin behavior where tech updates produced temporary spikes that failed to overcome dominant supply—e.g., tokens that reported mainnet milestones but remained capped at key resistance until broader market liquidity returned. Short-term impact: elevated downside risk and sell-the-rip setups. Long-term: fundamentals (mainnet, staking/rewards) could be positive if adoption and liquidity improve, but technicals must flip (MACD, CMF, higher lows) before bias changes.