PI Nears Record Low Ahead of 82M Token Unlock and Possible Kraken Listing
Pi Network’s PI token has fallen near its record low after losing more than 90% from its peak. Traders face a major scheduled supply event: roughly 82 million PI are set to unlock over the next seven days (part of about 206 million unlocking this month), adding roughly $11 million of immediate sellable supply at current prices. Additional token issuance is planned in March via validator rewards, which could further expand circulating supply if validators sell. On-chain unlocks and large monthly releases — including spikes mid-February — raise the risk of significant sell-side pressure and heightened volatility. Technical indicators are bearish: PI trades below its 50- and 100-day EMAs and the Supertrend, it recently broke support at $0.1520, and the RSI is below 30 (oversold). Short-term support sits in the $0.130–$0.152 range; downside is possible around unlock dates unless selling abates. A potential Kraken listing—appearing on Kraken’s roadmap but unconfirmed—represents the main bullish catalyst because a major exchange listing can materially improve liquidity and demand. For traders: expect elevated volatility and supply-driven downside in the near term; monitor on-chain flows of unlocked tokens (especially deposits to centralized exchanges), short-term supports at $0.130–$0.152, reclaiming of $0.1520 to reduce immediate downside risk, and any confirmed exchange-listing news which could trigger a recovery.
Bearish
The combined reports point to a predominantly bearish near-term outlook for PI. Large, scheduled token unlocks (82M in seven days; ~206M this month) will meaningfully increase circulating supply and likely elevate sell-side pressure, especially given the token’s steep prior decline and stagnant demand. Technical indicators reinforce immediate downside risk: PI is trading below key EMAs, below the Supertrend, recently broke $0.1520 support and has an RSI under 30, indicating oversold conditions but not eliminating short-term liquidation risk. While a potential Kraken listing is a credible bullish catalyst — it could improve liquidity and demand if confirmed — it remains unconfirmed and cannot offset imminent, supply-driven selling. Longer term, sustained recovery would require either reduced unlocked supply, confirmed major-exchange listings that attract fresh demand, or on-chain/utility developments that increase token use. For traders, the near-term outlook is dominated by supply shocks and elevated volatility; risk management should anticipate further downside into mid-February unlocks, watch for large exchange inflows of unlocked PI, and treat any confirmed major-exchange listing as a possible reversal trigger rather than a guaranteed rally.