PlanB warns BTC bottom not set: >50% chance of a pullback to $61k/$53k
Bitcoin (BTC) strategist PlanB (creator of the S2F model) said the market has not yet formed a “real” bottom despite BTC’s May close at $73,568. In a June 1 post on X, PlanB suggested there is more than a 50% probability that BTC will move lower.
Key levels cited for potential downside are the 200-week moving average (200wma) around $61,000 and the realized price around $53,000. PlanB framed this as personal judgment (“IMO”), not a strict S2F prediction for price timing. He noted that the S2F framework is mainly about the long-term relationship between scarcity and asset value, while short-term direction should be checked using other indicators such as RSI, moving averages (MA), realized price, and “in profit” address ratios.
The post sparked debate because PlanB has previously made bullish long-term claims (including a 2026 target), but the current message is cautious for the near term: traders may face additional volatility as the market reassesses where the BTC bottom actually forms.
Bearish
PlanB’s note is a short-term bearish warning for BTC: he argues the market has not yet confirmed a bottom and assigns >50% odds of further downside toward key technical/chain levels ($61k near 200wma and ~$53k realized price). For traders, this can increase the probability of “sell-the-rip” behavior, because BTC holders may expect a deeper liquidity sweep before trend stabilization.
In the past, similar “bottom not confirmed” narratives often coincide with delayed bottoming—prices may oscillate, break supports briefly, then only stabilize once momentum and on-chain pain/distribution indicators normalize. However, PlanB also explicitly separates S2F’s long-term scarcity thesis from short-term timing, which reduces the chance that the message should be interpreted as a full-cycle bear signal. Net effect: elevated downside risk in the short term, while long-term positioning may remain supported if BTC can hold or quickly reclaim those cited levels.