Political memecoins drove 2025 rally then collapsed; DOGE still dominates
Political memecoins and US investor demand propelled the memecoin market to a December 2024 peak of $150.6 billion market cap, surpassing 2021 highs. US interest accounted for about 20% of search/share early in 2025 and 30% of page views in November 2025. High-profile tokens tied to political figures — notably TRUMP and MELANIA launched around the US presidency — saw rapid, short-lived gains (TRUMP reached $14 billion market cap in 48 hours and an all-time price high near $73; MELANIA hit a $2 billion cap and $13 price) before severe reversals. TRUMP is down roughly 90% from its ATH (trading ~ $5) and MELANIA lost about $5 billion, trading near $0.1047. Other politicized launches such as LIBRA (linked to Argentina’s Javier Milei) triggered insider sell-offs and a collapse to near-zero market cap. DOGE retained leadership in the memecoin sector, recovering to 47.3% market share after earlier dips to ~27% in October 2024; it briefly surged on Elon Musk-related news. By mid-2025 memecoin market cap fell below $40 billion (approx. $38B), a ~73% decline from the peak. Analysts and industry figures (e.g., MoonPay’s president) say memecoins are evolving — future iterations may reward sustained cultural contribution and coordination rather than pure hype. Key takeaways for traders: extreme volatility and rapid unwind in politically driven memecoins, persistent dominance of DOGE, heightened regulatory and reputational risk around celebrity/political launches, and possible structural shift toward more utility- or community-driven meme tokens.
Bearish
The article documents a classic hype-and-unwind cycle driven by political narratives and celebrity involvement, which produced extreme short-term inflows and equally steep outflows. Key indicators supporting a bearish classification: memecoin market cap fell ~73% from its $150.6B peak to about $38B; high-profile political tokens (TRUMP, MELANIA, LIBRA) suffered rapid crashes and insider selling; overall investor confidence declined after politically linked launches. For traders this implies heightened short-term risk (sharp drawdowns, liquidity gaps, pump-and-dump dynamics) and increased probability of regulatory scrutiny or reputational impacts that can amplify sell-offs. DOGE’s resilience provides a relative safe-haven within memecoins, but the sector’s large cap contraction and evolving structure suggest caution: short-term trading opportunities may exist (volatile breakout/fade setups, event-driven plays), but position sizing, tight risk controls, and liquidity checks are essential. In the longer term, if memecoins evolve toward tokens that reward sustained contribution and coordination, select projects with clearer utility or strong community governance might recover or re-emerge — but that represents a structural transition rather than an immediate market-wide bullish signal.