Polymarket CFTC talks could restart US prediction markets access

Bloomberg reports Polymarket is in talks with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to lift the longstanding ban on US customers and restart access to its main prediction markets platform. The move would reverse parts of Polymarket’s 2022 CFTC settlement, which required blocking US users and included a $1.4 million civil penalty over allegedly unregistered event contracts. Traders should watch near-term regulatory process risk. Bloomberg says approval would need a formal CFTC commission vote, and with four commissioner seats currently vacant, the threshold could be lower. If lifted, Polymarket would expand beyond its 2025 limited US comeback: a December 2025 US app launched with waitlist-only access focused on sports event contracts, while Americans were still kept off the main international venue via a regulated QCEX-based setup. Market-structure implications matter. A fuller Polymarket US return could intensify competition with Kalshi, which has strengthened its position and also operates as an official market provider for Coinbase. However, regulatory pressure remains: Wisconsin’s attorney general has sued Kalshi, Polymarket, and others alleging “event contracts” facilitate illegal sports betting. Separately, US CFTC and the Justice Department accused a soldier of insider-information trading on Polymarket’s international exchange. Polymarket declined to comment. For crypto traders, the key takeaway is whether Polymarket’s CFTC pathway leads to a policy shift that could move volumes and sentiment in regulated prediction markets. Polymarket would be the primary catalyst if a vote clears.