Polymarket Gains CFTC No-Action Relief for U.S. Relaunch
Polymarket has secured no-action relief from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing its QCX entities to reopen compliant prediction markets to U.S. users through December 31, 2025. Polymarket voluntarily self-reported in 2022 and paid a $1.4 million settlement for unregistered derivatives, pausing U.S. services and cutting 40% of its $200 million monthly volume. After CFTC and DOJ probes closed without charges in July 2025, Polymarket acquired QCX for $112 million, registered with FinCEN as a money services business, and implemented aggregate market limits, transaction records, and sanctions screening. Backed by high-profile investors and facing competition from Kalshi, Polymarket’s U.S. return could restore access for 1.8 million traders, boost liquidity and revenue, and reinforce regulatory clarity in crypto trading.
Bullish
Polymarket’s CFTC no-action relief and FinCEN registration remove major regulatory hurdles. The U.S. return restores 40% of prior volume and access for 1.8 million traders, driving short-term liquidity and revenue gains. In the longer term, a compliant framework and regulatory clarity reduce operational risk, boost trader confidence, and position Polymarket to compete effectively with Kalshi. These factors create a bullish outlook for Polymarket trading activity.