CLARITY Act Odds Fall as Senate Vote Nears
Polymarket data shows the CLARITY Act has a 15% chance of becoming US law and receiving presidential approval in 2026, down sharply from 82% in February. Contracts tied to the outcome have generated about $11.62 million in trading volume. Earlier data put the probability at 13%, highlighting continued uncertainty around US crypto regulation.
The US Senate could hold a cloture vote on H.R. 3633 as early as 15 September at 14:15. The motion would generally require 60 votes to end debate. Kalshi estimates a 91% chance of a Senate vote before 1 October, although it gives the CLARITY Act or another qualifying crypto market-structure bill only a 30% chance of becoming law by 1 July 2027 and 50% by 1 January 2028. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9 on 14 May.
House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill said on 2 September that House passage was a major achievement. The latest draft addresses SEC and CFTC authority, consumer protection, illicit finance, decentralised finance, crypto intermediaries, disclosures, stablecoin yield, conflicts of interest and protections for non-custodial software developers. Passage could become a long-term regulatory catalyst for crypto markets, but the latest prediction-market odds suggest traders should expect continued volatility and uncertainty rather than an immediate bullish catalyst.
Neutral
The news is neutral for cryptocurrency prices because the CLARITY Act could support the market over the long term, but its near-term legislative prospects remain highly uncertain. The probability of enactment in 2026 has fallen from 82% in February to about 15%, which reduces the likelihood of an immediate regulatory-driven rally.
In the short term, traders may focus on the potential 15 September Senate vote and react to changes in vote expectations. A procedural setback could increase regulatory risk and weigh on market sentiment, while progress could trigger a relief rally across crypto-related assets. However, the bill still faces unresolved issues involving SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, stablecoin yield, decentralised finance and developer protections.
Over the longer term, passage could improve regulatory clarity, support institutional participation and reduce compliance uncertainty. Until the bill advances through the Senate and receives presidential approval, the prediction-market pricing supports a cautious, volatility-sensitive outlook rather than a clear bullish or bearish signal.