Clarity Act Loses 2026 Traction as Polymarket Odds Fall

Polymarket sharply cut the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 to about 37%, reflecting continued Senate gridlock. The bill has cleared the Senate Banking Committee but lacks a scheduled full Senate floor vote, leaving timing uncertainty high for traders. The Clarity Act is meant to clarify U.S. digital-asset oversight by splitting roles between the SEC and CFTC. However, the absence of clear calendar movement suggests political friction remains, with key catalysts including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s scheduling signals and any further statements from President Donald Trump or committee-aligned senators. Earlier market concerns also centered on the lack of a bipartisan ethics provision, with senators indicating they would not support the bill without conflict-of-interest language for public officials and digital assets. Traders typically read falling Clarity Act probabilities as weaker expectations for near-term regulatory certainty, which can reduce risk appetite across crypto derivatives and broader market positions.