Trump Backs GENIUS Act; Polymarket Sees 89% Passage Odds
Crypto traders are watching as former President Donald Trump endorses the Senate-approved GENIUS Act—Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins—urging the House to pass a clean version without delays or add-ons. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s decentralized prediction market assigns an 89% probability to the GENIUS Act becoming law. The measure includes licensing requirements, 100% reserve backing, mandatory audits for large issuers, and rules for foreign stablecoin providers. Sponsors aim for final approval before July 4 to avoid another Senate review. Swift enactment could strengthen stablecoin regulation, boost market trust, and help issuers like USDC and PAX compete globally, though compliance costs may pressure smaller firms. Traders should monitor House debates, proposed amendments, and industry feedback for trading signals.
Bullish
The combined news of Trump’s public support and Polymarket’s high probability estimate enhances regulatory clarity for US stablecoins like USDC and PAX. In the short term, this can trigger positive trading momentum as traders reprice stability and reduced legal risk. Over the long term, clear rules and federal backing may foster institutional adoption and liquidity, strengthening market confidence. While compliance costs may weigh on smaller issuers, established coins should benefit from widened acceptance and competitive positioning against EU and Asian markets, driving a bullish outlook.