Polymarket bettors cut odds on Kevin Hassett after Trump remarks; $11.4M bets at risk
Polymarket prediction markets trimmed odds for Kevin Hassett to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair after President Trump’s public remarks. After Trump said he’d like to keep Hassett ‘‘where you are,’’ traders initially shifted toward Kevin Warsh; Warsh’s odds rose to around 56% on Polymarket (and ~59% on Kalshi), while Hassett’s settled near 18%, Christopher Waller about 15%, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder about 8%. Approximately $11.4 million in open bets remained backing Hassett. The market movement follows Trump signaling Warsh or Hassett as top picks and ruling out others like Scott Bessent. Warsh’s recent dovish tone reportedly boosted his chances despite his prior hawkish record. Powell’s term expires in May, and he could remain a governor through 2028; he faces a separate investigation over Fed renovation cost overruns, which Hassett commented on, expressing support for Powell but urging more transparency. Key figures: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Rick Rieder, Jerome Powell, President Donald Trump. Primary keywords: Polymarket, Kevin Hassett, Fed chair, prediction market, Kevin Warsh. Secondary/semantic keywords: Fed nomination odds, Kalshi, Trump remarks, Powell investigation, trading volume.
Neutral
The news primarily affects prediction-market positions rather than crypto fundamentals. Polymarket and Kalshi odds moving from Hassett toward Warsh indicate trader sentiment shifts and concentrated capital (about $11.4M at risk) but do not directly change monetary policy or crypto network fundamentals. Short-term effects on crypto markets are likely neutral: increased volatility in risk-on assets could follow broader political uncertainty, but no direct Fed decision has been made—Powell remains in place until May. If a nominee with a materially different rate outlook (hawkish or dovish) became likely, crypto could react (hawkish → bearish for risk assets; dovish → bullish). Historically, political uncertainty around Fed leadership raises short-term market nervousness but rarely moves crypto decisively until policy changes occur. Traders should monitor: 1) nomination announcements, 2) market-implied rate expectations, and 3) on-chain and risk-asset flows. Manage risk by sizing positions, watching leverage, and hedging around major Fed-related events.