Polymarket insider trading claims hit as Iran ceasefire bets surge

Allegations of Polymarket insider trading resurfaced after newly created prediction-market accounts wagered on an Iran ceasefire shortly before Donald Trump posted “productive talks” on Truth Social. On Polymarket, eight anonymous accounts created around March 21 placed a combined $70,000 on a ceasefire being declared before March 31. If the outcome hits, the payouts could reach about $820,000. The public odds on a March 31 ceasefire reportedly jumped from 6% (March 21) to 24% before later settling around 11%, with more than $21 million currently wagered on the same outcome. Oil markets also flashed unusual timing. Minutes before Trump’s post, trading in WTI crude spiked: 734 bets to 2,168 bets within one minute, with roughly $170 million in contracts. In the same window, Brent trades reportedly surged from 20 to over 1,650, totaling about $150 million. A wealth-management partner at Killik & Co. said it looked like traders bought contracts positioned to profit from oil price declines before the social-media announcement. U.S. Senator Chris Murphy also claimed that around five minutes before Trump’s post, someone bought $1.5B in S&P 500 futures while selling $192M in oil futures, prompting questions about who had early knowledge. The White House denied any wrongdoing. Separately, Polymarket has faced prior scrutiny for removing a nuclear-detontation market and for suspiciously timed war-related bets around earlier Iran airstrikes. For crypto traders, the key takeaway is that Polymarket insider trading claims are again bringing prediction markets, regulation, and “information advantage” risk into focus—especially when macro events move fast and liquidity is thin for narrative-driven bets.