Polymarket Shows Low Odds for Trump to Oust Fed Chiefs
Polymarket prediction markets assign only a 10% chance that President Trump will remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair by end-2025. Polymarket bets on Trump’s attempt to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook over alleged pre-appointment mortgage fraud are slightly higher, at 27% by year-end. Cook contests the move, arguing “for cause” removal must relate to official misconduct. Historical precedents, including Truman ousting Thomas McCabe in 1951 and Nixon’s pressure on Arthur Burns, show US presidents occasionally influence Fed policy. Yet Polymarket’s muted odds suggest traders doubt any near-term shake-up. Bitcoin rose just 0.3% on the news, underscoring the neutral impact on crypto markets. A successful removal of Powell could pave the way for easier monetary policy, a weaker dollar, and boost risk assets like BTC, but current odds signal limited immediate market disruption.
Neutral
Polymarket’s low probabilities and Bitcoin’s minimal 0.3% uptick indicate that traders see limited immediate impact on market direction. Historically, Fed leadership changes can shift monetary policy and asset prices, but current odds imply Powell is likely to remain in place, keeping policy steady. Trump’s challenge to Cook, with only a 27% chance of success, adds political interest but not enough to destabilize markets. As both prediction markets and crypto traders await clear policy signals, the short-term outlook remains neutral, while a definitive change at the Fed would only then tilt sentiment bullish.