Polymarket prediction accuracy don pass 90%, e dey highlight bias and market trends
Research wey Alex McCullough do show say Polymarket, blockchain prediction platform, get predictive accuracy wey reach 90.5% one month before event solve, and e dey reach 94.2% four hours before dem solve am. Di study highlight say long-term markets dey show higher accuracy, but dem dey capture big changes when event timeline dey near. Even though e get high accuracy, di platform dey face challenges like when people dey follow crowd, low money, and compliance bias, wey fit lead to overestimation of event probability. All these things show say e dey hard to predict trends well, and e dey affect decision-making. Di report dey warn say all these findings no be investment advice, and e dey advise traders to dey make dem own decision.
Neutral
Even though the study highlight Polymarket high accuracy, the way bias and market dey complex bring one kind uncertainty wey dey make trading strategy hard. Traders fit see this one as neutral development because of the mixed factors of accuracy versus bias. The insights wey dem get about long-term accuracy and short-term market reactions give both opportunity and challenge, e dey show say market go fit dey shake well well instead of to dey clearly bullish or bearish.