Polymarket Data Shows 69% of Retail Traders Lost Money

Galaxy Research analysed 12.7 billion trades on Polymarket’s international platform and found that 69.2% of 2.9 million manually trading accounts lost money. Combined losses reached $338.9 million, although the median account lost only about $3, or roughly 0.5% of capital committed. The study excluded 125,429 accounts considered likely to be automated. They represented 4.1% of wallets but generated 80.8% of orders. Losing traders were also more likely to stop trading: 15.2% did not return within 30 days after a loss, compared with 6.1% after a profitable trade. Trading specialisation produced mixed results. Sports-focused accounts performed worst, with 25.1% ending profitably, while technology and science specialists recorded a 41.2% profitability rate. Profitable traders placed larger and more frequent bets, with a median position size of $13.96 versus $10 for losing traders. Holding time showed no clear link to returns. The findings arrive as Polymarket expands in the United States, adds social trading features and introduces taker fees. At a 50-cent contract price, fees on some crypto prediction markets can reach 3.5% of committed capital. Polymarket’s growth could improve liquidity but may also increase retail losses, regulatory scrutiny and concerns about trading-volume quality. The analysis tracks wallet addresses rather than individual people, and authorities in several jurisdictions are examining whether prediction-market contracts constitute unlicensed gambling.