Polymarket trader makes $320K on last-minute Biden pardons; insider concerns rise
On-chain sleuthing by Bubblemaps says a Polymarket trader used two linked wallets to profit about $320,000 with a perfect 100% win rate on Joe Biden’s last-minute pardon markets in 2025. The wallets correctly bet on five pardon outcomes, including Liz Cheney, Adam Kinziger, Adam Schiff, and Jim Biden, and they also correctly predicted Hunter Biden’s pardon in January. Some bets were placed when payout odds were very low (e.g., ~6% for the Adam Schiff-related market), then the trader increased positions as resolution approached, even as odds dropped close to zero.
The Decrypt report frames these results as potentially suspicious “big, well-timed bets” across connected wallets—an issue regulators and lawmakers have scrutinised amid recent predictions-trading controversy. It also notes the broader political-events-betting environment: lawmakers questioned CFTC Chair Mike Selig on prediction markets and Hyperliquid perps, while the White House previously directed staff not to bet on sensitive topics such as the Iran war.
For traders, the key takeaway is that Polymarket’s political-event pricing may face heightened oversight risk if similar patterns are treated as market manipulation or insider trading.
Neutral
This news is likely to have a neutral-to-mixed impact on crypto markets. The direct on-chain data points to potentially suspicious Polymarket behavior (connected wallets, low-odds timing, outsized profits). That raises the probability of regulatory scrutiny, tighter compliance, or limits on prediction-market participation—factors that can dampen speculative activity in the short term.
However, there’s no evidence here of a systemic crypto-market shock (no major exchange failure, stablecoin depeg, or broad token selloff described). Historically, similar controversy around prediction markets tends to shift activity from “unfettered speculation” toward more cautious volumes, but the broader market often absorbs the news without sustained directional moves unless enforcement escalates.
Short-term: traders may front-run headlines by reducing exposure to politically-linked prediction plays or increasing hedging.
Long-term: if regulators and lawmakers push for clearer rules and oversight, these markets could become less “insider-like,” potentially improving credibility—but it can also reduce liquidity and retail participation.