Polymarket Odds for U.S. Military Strike on Iran Drop Below 50% as Trump Team Seeks Diplomatic Talks
Polymarket, a leading decentralized prediction market, has seen odds for a U.S. military strike against Iran fall below 50%, dropping to 46% after peaking at 66.9%. This shift follows reports from Axios indicating that former President Donald Trump’s team is seeking diplomatic talks with Iran’s foreign minister, exploring options to resolve nuclear deal disputes and de-escalate Israel-Iran tensions. The contract in question, ’U.S. military action against Iran before July,’ reflects rapidly changing sentiment among traders. This development follows recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities, which triggered brief market turmoil. Bitcoin (BTC) initially saw a sharp sell-off to $102,750 before rebounding to $106,700. Broader risk markets remain volatile, with S&P 500 futures down 0.7%. While the Trump administration has not officially confirmed talks, these diplomatic moves are easing immediate war concerns, reducing volatility in both crypto and traditional markets.
Neutral
The news signals a reduction in immediate geopolitical risk due to potential diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran, as reflected by falling Polymarket odds. This has eased volatility caused by the recent Israel-Iran flare-up. While Bitcoin and other risk assets saw a shock drop, rapid recovery shows the market pricing in a lower chance of conflict escalation. Historical parallels—such as previous Middle East tensions—show that crypto often reacts sharply to war risks but stabilizes quickly with signs of diplomacy. Short-term, expect moderate relief and reduced selling pressure; long-term direction will depend on follow-through of diplomatic efforts.