Hungary and Portugal Block Polymarket Over Unlicensed Political Betting
Hungary and Portugal have moved to restrict access to Polymarket, a US-based crypto prediction market, escalating European regulatory scrutiny. Hungary’s regulator temporarily blocked the site and subdomains for “forbidden organization of gambling activities,” with local users seeing regulator warnings when accessing from Hungarian IPs. Portugal’s Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) ordered Polymarket to stop operating domestically, citing the lack of a gambling license and a national ban on political betting; regulators pointed to roughly €4 million in election-related wagers placed shortly before results. Enforcement in Portugal appeared incomplete at the time of reporting, as the site remained reachable for some users. Polymarket has faced prior restrictions in France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, Switzerland and Ukraine, and previously adjusted onboarding and KYC in response to enforcement elsewhere. For traders, key implications are higher jurisdictional legal risk, possible geofencing of markets, reduced liquidity on politically sensitive questions, and potential migration of activity to decentralized or offshore platforms. Traders holding or trading prediction-market exposure should monitor regional IP blocks, KYC changes, and on-chain movement of liquidity and positions. Primary keywords: Polymarket, prediction market, regulatory action. Secondary/semantic keywords: gambling license, political betting ban, market access, KYC, geofencing, liquidity risk.
Bearish
The regulatory blocks against Polymarket increase legal and operational risk for a platform whose value to traders depends on market access and liquidity. Short-term effects: political markets and related prediction-market tokens may see immediate liquidity drops and narrower order books in affected jurisdictions as geofencing and user restrictions remove participants. Market prices for contracts tied to political outcomes could widen spreads and experience higher slippage. Traders may shift activity to decentralized, offshore, or peer-to-peer venues, fragmenting liquidity further. Long-term effects: sustained regulatory pressure can suppress user growth and reduce overall platform volume, lowering token utility and demand tied to the platform ecosystem. Repeated enforcement actions also raise counterparty and regulatory risk premiums, which can weigh on valuations. While these impacts are specific to prediction-market exposure rather than broad crypto markets, tokens or derivatives tied directly to Polymarket are likely to face downward pressure until regulatory clarity or compliance measures restore access and liquidity.