Powell Speech and End of QT on Dec 1 Could Drive Bitcoin & Altcoin Momentum
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on December 1, 2025, coincides with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), creating a key liquidity event for Bitcoin and altcoins. Markets price an ~87% chance of a December rate cut according to federal funds futures; a dovish tone from Powell would reinforce cut expectations and likely boost risk assets. Ending QT halts the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff (from a peak near $9T to ~$7.4T), which historically correlates with improved market liquidity and gains in high-beta assets. Analysts cite past post-QT periods (e.g., 2019) where Bitcoin and altcoins surged months after QT ended. Macro data—CPI around 2.5% y/y and soft November nonfarm payrolls—could tilt Powell toward easing-friendly language. Scenarios: a dovish pivot may sustain the current relief rally and push BTC toward resistance near $108,000; a cautious or hawkish tone could mute enthusiasm and prompt retracement, though the baseline liquidity improvement from QT’s end offers support. Key trading considerations: watch Powell’s tone, CME-implied cut odds, liquidity proxies (Fed balance sheet, M2), on-chain inflows and ETF flows, and short-term volatility around the event. Expected immediate outcomes include elevated volatility, potential rotation into altcoins if easing is signalled, and increased institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs.
Bullish
The combined event — Powell’s speech plus the official end of QT — tilts the balance toward increased liquidity and higher probability of rate cuts, which typically benefits high-beta assets such as Bitcoin and many altcoins. Market-implied odds (~87% for a December cut) and recent weak payrolls strengthen the case for a dovish interpretation. Historical precedents (post-QT periods like 2019) saw substantial gains in crypto as liquidity conditions loosened. Short-term, the event will increase volatility: a clearly dovish Powell could trigger a rapid rally and altcoin rotation, while a cautious or hawkish tone could prompt profit-taking and retracement. However, the mechanical liquidity improvement from stopping QT provides a constructive baseline for risk assets, supporting a bullish medium-term outlook. Traders should monitor Fed wording, CME Fed futures, Fed balance-sheet changes, ETF flows, and on-chain exchange flows to time entries and manage risk around heightened event-driven volatility.