Powell to step down May 15, 2026; Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation odds

Jerome Powell is expected to step down as Federal Reserve Chair by May 15, 2026, with his Board of Governors term continuing until 2028. Traders are watching Fed chair confirmation closely: prediction markets price a very high chance that the May 15 Fed chair outcome is confirmed (about 95.8% YES), and they also imply Powell’s exit stays near the scheduled window. The Senate confirmation process for Kevin Warsh is the next key catalyst. Any new signaling from White House officials or influential senators, plus Powell’s own late-stage comments, could shift expectations around timing. The latest article adds an internal Fed risk signal: Powell’s final FOMC meeting reportedly saw four dissenting members—the most since the 1990s—suggesting policy divisions that may carry into the leadership transition. Macro sentiment also matters for crypto risk assets: geopolitical tensions and elevated global energy prices can influence rate expectations and volatility. Overall, the near-term path looks broadly aligned with market pricing, but policy uncertainty may rise after Warsh’s confirmation and during the early post-transition period.