Kalshi backs prediction markets lobby as House probes Polymarket
Kalshi-backed “Americans for Fair Markets” has launched to shape federal policy on prediction markets. Its strategic adviser is Taylor Budowich, a former deputy White House chief of staff.
The group plans paid advocacy to counter narratives it links to sportsbooks and casino interests, and it will push for consumer protections on prediction markets. It also supports the CFTC’s regulatory role amid ongoing jurisdiction fights between the CFTC and some US states that argue such markets may violate local gambling laws.
Americans for Fair Markets will join the broader “Coalition for Prediction Markets” launched in December 2025, backed by Coinbase, Crypto.com and Robinhood. The move comes as the US House opened a probe into Kalshi and its main rival Polymarket, focusing on how insider-trading issues were handled.
For traders, the main signal is policy risk: any tightening of US rules could restrict event-based prediction markets. Near term, the House-level investigation may keep volatility elevated around related crypto and equity sentiment tied to prediction market operators.
Neutral
The launch of a prediction markets lobbying push increases the odds of a more structured, federally regulated framework. However, simultaneous US House scrutiny into insider-trading handling raises uncertainty around compliance expectations and near-term operator risk.
In the short term, investigations typically amplify sentiment volatility for tokens and equities tied to prediction market platforms. In the longer term, outcomes depend on whether CFTC-led rules permit event-based contracts and whether consumer-protection requirements become the new baseline. Net effect is mixed, so the immediate market direction for related crypto is likely neutral rather than one-sided bullish or bearish.