Polymarket study: na only 3.5% traders dey make most profit, dey raise worry say insiders fit dey advantage

New study from London Business School and Yale show say Polymarket no dey powered by "collective wisdom." Dem use Polymarket trading data from 2023–2025, then researchers simulate each trader behavior 10,000 times to separate skill from chance. Main result: only about 3.5% of Polymarket accounts dey generate most profits. Market makers and more experienced traders capture over 30% of total gains, while the wider user base mainly provide liquidity and volume. The paper also find say many traders na “lucky winners” or “unlucky losers,” mean say observed returns often be chance not steady informational edge. Newer related analysis add tighter “consistent edge” filter: only 0.015% of traders reach at least $5,000 profit across four consecutive months (Apr 2024–Apr 2026) on Polymarket. Regulatory angle: the study highlight insider-trading vulnerability because Polymarket depend on real-world events and people join pseudonymously with limited oversight. For crypto traders, trading takeaway be say Polymarket pricing fit reflect small informed minority. That fit affect how you size risk and set expectations on prediction-market venues—especially during high-attention events.