Prediction markets hit record $50.6B July volume across Kalshi and Polymarket
Prediction markets recorded a combined $50.59B in monthly trading volume in July, a new high across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. This was up 7.8% from the revised June total of $46.95B, driven mainly by contract turnover tied to event settlement cycles.
Kalshi led with $37.7B (about 74.5% of the combined figure), while Polymarket US climbed 54% to $5B. Polymarket’s international venue fell 26% to $7.9B, leaving total Polymarket (international + US) at $12.9B. Open interest dropped to $1.2B after the FIFA World Cup ended, suggesting post-tournament cooling even as Prediction markets volume remained elevated.
The report stresses that “notional” taker volume is not exchange revenue and does not mean traders deposited $50.6B. Contracts can be traded multiple times before settlement, increasing volume without equal new capital inflows.
Regulatory pressure continues to shape expectations for Prediction markets. New York sued Kalshi (alleging an illegal, unlicensed gambling operation). Meanwhile, a Minnesota federal judge temporarily blocked state enforcement against Kalshi and Polymarket US, citing likely federal preemption—though the scope may be narrow.
For traders, the next datapoint is August activity without the World Cup tailwind. The key question is whether Prediction markets can sustain liquidity through ongoing court proceedings, especially if eligible contracts face changing compliance interpretations.
Neutral
Prediction markets volume hitting a record $50.6B is a bullish-looking liquidity signal, but the article underlines that this is taker notional volume (turnover) rather than new customer deposits or revenue. So it suggests strong trading activity and market depth rather than guaranteed profitability or sustained inflows.
At the same time, the trading environment remains uncertain due to US court battles. New York’s lawsuit against Kalshi and the Minnesota temporary injunction for Kalshi/Polymarket US create a “wait-and-see” regime: traders may keep positioning if operations are allowed, but market participants can also reduce risk ahead of adverse rulings or narrower interpretations of what qualifies as federally regulated derivatives.
Historically, prediction-market spikes tied to major events (like the World Cup) often fade once contracts settle and open interest declines—here, open interest fell to ~$1.2B. That pattern implies a likely short-term cooldown into August, while longer-term direction depends on regulatory clarity: if courts broaden protection/federal preemption, volumes may stabilize; if courts narrow eligibility, liquidity could fragment or migrate.
Net effect: liquidity news is positive for activity, but regulatory risk and the post-event open-interest drop temper momentum—hence neutral for market stability overall.