QCP Warns Crypto Rebound Short-Lived Amid Macro Risks

Published: 2025-11-12 22:13:16 |

Analysts at QCP Capital caution that the recent crypto rebound may be short-lived amid persistent macroeconomic risks. The recovery, driven by the U.S. Senate’s approval of legislation to end the government shutdown, sparked gains across crypto, gold and equities. However, QCP highlights lingering threats: ongoing policy “kick-the-can” tactics, U.S.-China tariff tensions and credit market volatility. Bitcoin is trading around $102,600, down nearly 1% in 24 hours and over 10.5% in the past month. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s growth rate fell from 16.75% on October 1 to 6.60% by November 10. Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee attributes recent dips to risk-off sentiment, cooling AI trades and profit-taking. QCP notes that private economic indicators, such as the NFIB Small Business Index, continue to inform Fed policy-making despite the shutdown. Upcoming inflation data could set the market tone for the remainder of 2025. A potential Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar may bolster liquidity and risk appetite, helping Bitcoin close the fourth quarter on a positive note. Meanwhile, SynFutures CEO Rachel Lin warns of heightened intraday volatility amid institutional accumulation and headline-driven shocks.

Neutral

QCP Capital’s warning, combined with persistent macroeconomic headwinds—government shutdown uncertainties, U.S.-China tariff tensions and credit market volatility—suggests limited upside for cryptocurrencies in the near term. Although the Senate’s bill to reopen the government delivered a short-term crypto rebound, similar historical events (e.g., the 2018 U.S. shutdown) saw rebounds quickly fade under renewed risk aversion. Bitcoin’s recent dip below key support levels around $105,000 underscores traders’ susceptibility to headline-driven shocks and profit-taking. However, market stability may improve later in Q4 if upcoming inflation data remains within expectations and the Federal Reserve moves to cut rates. Private indicators like the NFIB Small Business Index and a potential weaker dollar could bolster liquidity, creating a modest floor for bullish sentiment. These countervailing forces—short-term volatility risk vs. medium-term policy support—lead to a neutral outlook. Traders should brace for choppy sessions ahead, with inflation prints and Fed guidance as primary catalysts for directional moves.