Experts Warn Quantum Computing May Threaten Bitcoin Security by 2030-2035
Recent advancements in quantum computing have heightened concerns about Bitcoin’s encryption security. IBM plans to debut a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, sparking debate among experts about when Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses—particularly elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and SHA-256—might be at risk. Google researcher Craig Gidney predicts a potential vulnerability window for Bitcoin between 2030 and 2035, based on improved quantum resource efficiency. Blockstream CEO Adam Back remains skeptical, estimating that a significant threat is at least two decades away, but cautions that future breakthroughs could necessitate migration to quantum-resistant wallets. David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, offers a more urgent warning, suggesting that quantum computers could compromise Bitcoin within five years unless the network rapidly upgrades its cryptography. Prominent investor Chamath Palihapitiya also highlights risk to Bitcoin’s SHA-256, following Google’s 105-qubit chip breakthrough. Industry consensus suggests that true quantum risk depends on reaching quantum computers with millions of qubits and robust error correction, milestones not yet realized. Around 30% of Bitcoin is reportedly held in addresses vulnerable to future threats. The need for swift adoption of quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions is emphasized to prevent catastrophic loss of trust and value in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Bearish
The news signals increased and credible threats to Bitcoin’s long-term security from quantum computing, a topic that has historically caused market unease. While an immediate breach is unlikely, warnings from respected industry figures and new technological milestones have renewed urgency for crypto projects to adopt quantum-resistant measures. If the community perceives concrete action is not underway, short-term trader sentiment could be negatively impacted, leading to price volatility and increased outflows from vulnerable wallets. Historically, security scares in the crypto sector have led to temporary price declines and shaken investor confidence until risk mitigation plans become clear. Over the long term, proactive upgrades may counteract bearish sentiment, but for now, this news is likely to generate caution and defensive positioning among traders.