Quantum Threat Targets Legacy Bitcoin Wallets — OG Buyers Likely to Step In
Quantum computing fears resurfaced after social media claims suggested a future quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed Bitcoin public keys and steal coins from legacy pay‑to‑public‑key (P2PK) addresses. About 4 million BTC remain in P2PK-style outputs that reveal full public keys on‑chain when spent; Satoshi’s wallets are estimated to contain ~1.1M BTC but have never moved, so their public keys remain unexposed. Modern address types typically hide public keys until spending, reducing vulnerability. Experts including Blockstream co‑founder Adam Back estimate quantum machines capable of breaking Bitcoin signatures are likely decades away (commonly cited 20–40 years), and proposed post‑quantum cryptography standards and voluntary migration to quantum‑resistant addresses provide mitigation pathways. Market analysts (e.g., Willy Woo) and long‑time holders note the larger near‑term risk is market disruption from the prospect or demonstration of a quantum attack — panic selling or opportunistic buying by veteran holders could amplify volatility. For traders: the threat is specific to legacy P2PK exposure and is a long‑term technical risk rather than an immediate systemic vulnerability, but monitor chain activity of legacy addresses, follow quantum computing breakthroughs, and watch news that could trigger sudden volatility.
Neutral
The direct technical risk to BTC prices is limited in the near term. Both summaries emphasize that the vulnerability is specific to legacy P2PK addresses that reveal full public keys and that most BTC uses modern address formats which hide keys until spending. Experts like Adam Back project a 20–40 year timeline for quantum machines that could break Bitcoin signatures, and post‑quantum cryptography plus voluntary migrations provide mitigations. Short‑term market impact would stem from sentiment: news or demonstrations suggesting successful quantum attacks could trigger panic selling or opportunistic buying, causing sharp but likely temporary volatility. Long‑term, if quantum advances accelerate unexpectedly, the market would face a structural risk requiring coordinated migrations to quantum‑resistant addresses — a scenario that could be destabilizing while transitions occur. For traders, the immediate actionable effects are limited: monitor chain activity of legacy P2PK addresses, follow credible quantum computing milestones, and be prepared for sentiment‑driven spikes in volatility rather than an imminent systemic sell‑off.