Quantum Attack Risk for Bitcoin and Ethereum Advances
The quantum attack risk facing Bitcoin and Ethereum has moved closer to a practical threshold, although no current quantum computer can breach either network. Through the ECDSA.Fail open challenge, researchers from the Ethereum Foundation, Theta Labs and StarkWare, joined by more than 100 participants, produced over 400 valid optimisations of a key Shor’s algorithm circuit.
The leading design uses 1,151 logical qubits and about 1.3 million Toffoli gates, cutting its estimated resource score to below 1.5 billion. This is more than 50% below Google Quantum AI’s March benchmark. Later designs reportedly lowered the score to about 1.26 billion or reduced the requirement to 813 logical qubits, but with a substantially higher computation cost.
The research targets elliptic-curve cryptography used by BTC and ETH. A sufficiently powerful fault-tolerant quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed public keys and forge transactions. The study covers only a major part of the attack and excludes complete Shor execution, error correction and real-world hardware costs.
For traders, the immediate price impact is likely limited. However, the findings reinforce a long-term security risk. Around 7 million BTC are reportedly held in addresses with visible public keys, while previously unused Bitcoin addresses retain some protection until funds are spent. Quantum-resistant upgrades for wallets, custody systems, smart contracts and blockchain infrastructure could take years. Ethereum’s planned 2027 Hegotá upgrade has raised quantum-resistance issues, and the Ethereum Foundation is targeting broader post-quantum protection by December 2029, but the technical plan remains unsettled.
Neutral
The news is neutral for BTC and ETH prices in the short term. The research improves estimates for a future quantum attack, but it does not demonstrate an active exploit, and existing quantum computers remain far below the required capability. Traders are therefore unlikely to reprice either asset sharply based on this development alone.
Volatility could rise if further breakthroughs reduce the required logical qubits or if major blockchain developers announce delayed post-quantum upgrades. Such developments could trigger temporary selling, particularly in assets with exposed public keys or weak security narratives. Conversely, credible migration plans could reduce long-term uncertainty and support confidence.
The long-term risk is more significant. Quantum computers could eventually threaten exposed BTC and ETH keys, while upgrading wallets, custody infrastructure, smart contracts and consensus systems may take years. The results should therefore be viewed as a technology and security warning rather than an immediate bearish catalyst. Overall, the near-term market effect remains neutral, with a potentially negative structural impact if post-quantum preparations fall behind.