Quantum Computing 2026: No Immediate Crypto Collapse — Prepare for ’Store Now, Decrypt Later’
Quantum computing advances in 2026 — including milestones like Microsoft’s Majorana 1 — have accelerated research and investment but do not pose an imminent threat to Bitcoin or major blockchains. Cryptography experts say practical quantum attacks that can run Shor’s algorithm at scale against ECDSA remain years to a decade or more away because they require millions of low-error qubits, long coherence times and material and fabrication breakthroughs. The primary near-term risk is archival: adversaries are already collecting on-chain public keys and encrypted data today to decrypt later once quantum capability matures (“store now, decrypt later”). Analysts estimate roughly 25–30% of BTC (about 4 million BTC) is held in addresses exposing public keys, increasing potential vulnerability. ECDSA digital signatures are the weakest link; SHA-256 hashing is comparatively more resilient to quantum attacks. Recommended actions for traders and holders: avoid address reuse, keep public keys hidden until spending, and prepare to migrate to post-quantum wallets and signature schemes when viable. Industry responses include proposals for quantum-resistant signatures, vendor products offering quantum-grade randomness and post-quantum encryption for hot wallets (e.g., Qastle), and regulatory attention from bodies like the US SEC. Market impact is limited in the short term — the narrative is shifting from ‘if’ to ‘when,’ making wallet hygiene and strategic planning for post-quantum migration important for long-term risk management.
Neutral
The news signals increased technological progress and industry attention but does not present an immediate cryptographic collapse for Bitcoin. Experts indicate that large-scale quantum attacks capable of breaking ECDSA are still years to a decade or more away, which limits immediate price pressure. The measurable short-term effect is low: traders should not expect sudden market moves purely from this development. However, the revelation that ~25–30% of BTC resides in addresses with exposed public keys elevates a medium- to long-term risk profile. That increases incentives for secure wallet practices and migration plans to post-quantum cryptography, which could create sustained demand for custody solutions, wallet upgrades, and service-provider offerings. In short-term trading, liquidity and sentiment impacts are likely muted (neutral). Over the longer term, as post-quantum migration plans and regulatory measures progress, this could influence capital allocation within the crypto ecosystem and bolster services offering quantum-resistant solutions — strategic but not immediately bullish or bearish for BTC price.