Quantum Computing May Break Bitcoin Encryption by 2028
An online Quantum Doomsday Clock model forecasts that quantum computing could break Bitcoin encryption by March 2028. Developed by Postquant Labs and Hadamard Gate, the tool estimates that about 1 673 logical qubits running Shor’s algorithm on ECDSA secp256k1 are needed to derive private keys in practical time. Addresses exposing public keys, such as legacy P2PK and reused P2PKH, face risk, while Taproot and SegWit addresses remain secure longer.
Expert institutions including NIST and the Global Risk Institute predict the quantum threat window between 2028 and 2035. Google researcher Craig Gidney’s findings suggest resource requirements may be 20 times lower, potentially shifting crack dates to 2030–2035. IBM’s planned fault-tolerant “Quantum Starling” system in 2029 and Google’s 105-qubit “Willow” chip indicate rapid advances in quantum computing.
Traders should monitor developments in quantum computing and Bitcoin encryption vulnerabilities, as a successful quantum attack could expose private keys, compromise wallets, and disrupt the $2 trillion BTC market. Adoption of post-quantum cryptography and migration to quantum-resistant signature schemes like ML-DSA may become crucial to secure Bitcoin’s network.
Bearish
The prediction that quantum computing could crack Bitcoin encryption by 2028 raises security concerns that can undermine investor confidence. In the short term, traders may reduce BTC exposure to hedge against potential vulnerabilities, leading to sell pressure. Over the long term, the urgency for adopting post-quantum cryptography and migrating to quantum-resistant addresses could stabilize the network but may also incur transition risks and costs. Overall, the news is bearish for Bitcoin due to increased uncertainty around its cryptographic security.