ECC-256 quantum break timeline for BTC/ETH don quicken reach ~10 days
Caltech and Oratomic tok say Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) wallet encryption wey use ECC-256 fit in theory get cracked by quantum computer wey get about ~26,000 qubits, inside around ten days. Di study talk say earlier estimates too pessimistic and for best case e fit need nearer ~10,000 qubits. For comparison, dem estimate RSA-2048 need 102,000+ qubits and fit take up to three months. Oratomic "neutral atom" approach dem talk say e need far less qubits than previous Google Quantum AI forecast (under 500,000). Di work still note say attackers fit use Shor's algorithm take comot private keys on ECC-256 protected assets on tight timeline, though "instant" exploit still unlikely immediately. Trading implication: short-term price moves fit remain muted, but long-term risk dey rise for dormant wallets or address types wey fit no ready for post-quantum migration.
Bearish
BTC/ETH dey exposed to quantum threat wey faster pass wetin dem expect against ECC-256, we fit shake long-term confidence and make people feel say tail risk don increase. For short term, markets fit discount how practical an immediate “instant attack” go be, so spot moves fit small. But if traders start to price more urgency around post-quantum migration, address hygiene, and custodial upgrade cycles, sentiment fit turn negative for BTC and ETH compared to other narratives. Long term, research dey support higher chance say keys fit get compromised in future—specially for dormant or non-upgraded wallets—so risk premium go still dey.