Raoul Pal: Bitcoin Is at a ’2017 Google’ Stage; Ethereum Earlier in Network Growth
Macro investor Raoul Pal compares cryptocurrency networks to major tech platforms, saying Bitcoin in 2025 resembles "2017 Google" — a proven network with accelerating adoption but substantial unrealized upside. He argues crypto value is driven primarily by network effects (citing Metcalfe’s Law) rather than traditional cash flows, so increased user adoption multiplies network value. Pal adds Ethereum is at an even earlier stage than Bitcoin, implying greater potential upside as its network utility and adoption mature. The piece frames Bitcoin and Ethereum as platform businesses similar to Google, Meta and Amazon, where scale and interaction, not earnings, determine value.
Bullish
Pal’s comparison frames Bitcoin and Ethereum as platform assets whose value scales with adoption. For traders, this is a bullish narrative: it supports longer-term demand assumptions and institutional thesis that growth in users, on-chain activity and utility will drive price appreciation. Historically, positive narratives about network adoption (e.g., growing on-chain activity, institutional adoption announcements) have preceded multi-month bullish trends in BTC and ETH. Short-term impact may be limited — narratives alone don’t move markets without flows — but reinforce investor conviction and can attract incremental buying from allocators focused on network growth metrics. Over the medium-to-long term, if adoption metrics (wallets, transactions, DeFi TVL, staking, on-chain transfers) continue rising, price appreciation pressure should increase. Risks: market cycles, macro shocks, and profit-taking can still trigger pullbacks, so traders should watch liquidity, derivatives positioning and on-chain adoption indicators to time entries and manage risk.