Real Vision CEO: Zcash surge looks like capital rotation, not a sustainable rally

Published: 2025-12-19 10:18:05 |

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal says Zcash’s sharp 2025 rally appears driven mainly by capital rotation within crypto rather than a durable, structural bull trend. ZEC has surged roughly 700–745% year-to-date and saw its market cap jump from about $1 billion in August to over $7 billion by early November, helped by retail momentum, social-media attention (including comments from Arthur Hayes) and rising institutional interest such as a Grayscale filing to convert a Zcash-linked fund into a spot ETF. Momentum has since cooled: ZEC lost roughly 37% in the past month. Pal told the When Shift Happens podcast that traders should treat the move as rotation until ZEC forms a stable price base and can hold up when the broader market advances. He is unlikely to chase current levels and would consider buying on a pullback. Key trader takeaways: watch base formation, volume trends, ETF/institutional developments, and overall market direction; short-term reversals are possible if rotation unwinds.

Neutral

The news signals caution rather than a clear directional bias for ZEC. Positive drivers cited — large YTD gains, rising market cap, social-media attention and institutional activity (Grayscale filing) — support the possibility of further inflows. However, Raoul Pal characterises the move as capital rotation and highlights weakening momentum (≈37% drop in 30 days) and the lack of a stable base. That combination suggests elevated volatility and a risk of sharp reversals if rotation unwinds. Short-term impact: mixed — potential for continued swings and pullbacks as traders take profits or rotate funds. Long-term impact: uncertain — sustainability depends on base formation, renewed volume support, and confirmation from a broader crypto uptrend or tangible institutional product launches. Traders should therefore avoid chasing breakouts, monitor volume, ETF/Grayscale developments and market breadth, and consider buying only on confirmed pullbacks or after base consolidation.