RBA Minutes Keep AUD Cautious; Traders Await CPI and Jobs Data
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s November meeting minutes signaled a cautious, data-dependent monetary policy, keeping the cash rate at 4.35%. The minutes noted persistent domestic inflation pressures, weakening consumer spending across sectors, and international uncertainties weighing on exports. The RBA emphasized waiting for additional data before adjusting policy and reiterated its commitment to returning inflation to the 2–3% band. In response, AUD/USD traded narrowly around 0.6550–0.6580 during the Asian session, reflecting muted investor conviction. Analysts from Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and ANZ highlighted the balanced risk assessment and the importance of upcoming CPI, employment, retail sales and business confidence releases (notably quarterly CPI due Jan 29, 2026 and employment change Dec 12, 2025). Traders are focusing on technical setups across AUD pairs (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD) and applying tighter risk management—smaller positions and disciplined stop-losses—until clearer fundamental signals emerge. The medium-term AUD trajectory will hinge on domestic data and global factors such as commodity prices, US dollar moves and other central bank policies.
Neutral
The RBA minutes convey a cautious, data-dependent stance rather than a surprise tightening or easing. That typically leads to muted, range-bound FX reactions rather than directional breaks—hence a neutral impact. Short-term, volatility may increase around upcoming CPI and employment releases, prompting traders to reduce position sizes and tighten stops. AUD pairs (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD) may see temporary swings tied to risk sentiment and commodity price moves. Long-term impact depends on whether future data justify policy shifts: stronger-than-expected inflation/employment could push the RBA toward tighter policy (bullish for AUD), while persistent weakness could prompt easing or prolonged stagnation (bearish). Historically, RBA communications that stress data dependency produce short-lived market moves until confirming economic prints arrive; traders should therefore watch the scheduled CPI and employment reports for clearer directional guidance.