Record $31B Bitcoin Options Expiry on Oct 31 Signals Volatility
Bitcoin options expiry on October 31 will reach a record $31 billion in open interest, representing over 260,000 BTC and surpassing September’s $18 billion. Major venues like Deribit and CME lead the expiry, with Deribit accounting for $30.5 billion across more than 453,820 contracts. Traders are heavily skewed toward call options—ranging from near-the-money strikes at $20,000–$25,000 to upside bets at $120,000—while puts concentrate at the $100,000 strike for downside protection. Open interest has rebounded to all-time highs despite an October 10 flash crash that liquidated $19 billion in leveraged positions. Historical patterns show volatility often compresses ahead of large expiries, then unfolds in sharp directional moves within 24–72 hours. With Bitcoin trading near $109,900 and the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates, market participants should prepare for heightened price swings and potential bullish momentum.
Bullish
The record $31 billion Bitcoin options expiry and all-time-high open interest highlight strong institutional hedging and growing trader appetite for directional bets. The skew toward call options and concentrated put positions at key strikes suggest market participants are positioning for upside while managing downside risk. Historical trends show that large expiries often compress volatility before triggering sharp moves. Coupled with Bitcoin near $109,900 and a likely Federal Reserve rate cut, this setup points to heightened short-term price swings and a potential bullish breakout in the days following expiry.