Bitcoin Treasury Collapse Spurs $17B Loss and NAV Shift
A 10x Research report reveals retail investors overpaid some $20B in premiums as Bitcoin treasury stocks surged above net asset value (NAV), only to collapse, wiping out around $17B. Firms like Metaplanet and MicroStrategy saw valuations plunge despite strong BTC holdings—Metaplanet’s market cap fell from $8B to $3.1B against $3.3B in Bitcoin, while MSTR shares have dropped over 20% since August even after adding 220 BTC at above $123K. Bitcoin treasury stocks collapse mirrors a broader crypto slump, with BTC trading near $106,800, down 4% in the past week. The report warns that with share premiums evaporated, the sector must shift from marketing-driven hype to disciplined NAV-based trading. Arbitrage-focused managers could capture 15–20% annual returns by offering pure BTC exposure plus trading profits. Galaxy Digital’s Michael Novogratz says the treasury stock boom has peaked, predicting next gains will favor well-capitalized firms with experienced trading teams.
Bearish
The collapse of Bitcoin treasury stocks and the wipeout of $17B in retail investor funds indicate negative sentiment and heightened selling pressure, likely weighing on BTC price in the short term. Overpaid share premiums evaporating highlight a market correction that may stabilize only after fundamentals-driven NAV trading gains traction. However, disciplined asset managers could support a recovery later, but immediate impact remains bearish.