Prediction market odds fall on Iran regime and Reza Pahlavi return

Iran pro-government rallies in Tehran are unfolding amid ongoing US–Israel–Iran tensions. In the prediction market, traders cut odds for multiple political outcomes. The chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 eased to 7.5% (from 8%), while the probability of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 fell to 5.5% (from 6%). The term structure still shows a wide gap: June 30 is priced at 5.5% versus December 31 at 14.5%, suggesting any catalyst for Pahlavi’s return is more likely later in the year. The “regime fall by May 31” contract also dropped to 3.5%. All three contracts moved down together, indicating traders read the rallies as regime stability rather than an imminent internal break. Liquidity looks more supportive: about $35,587/day of USDC for the regime-fall contract, and roughly $16,830 (USDC) to move odds by 5 points. Directional conviction was limited, with the largest 24-hour move only about one point. Key triggers to watch include potential IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) activity or public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei. Prediction market odds are drifting lower despite geopolitical noise, implying sentiment is stabilizing rather than accelerating. A YES share near 7.5¢ for a June 30 regime fall would still imply a high payout profile if it resolves, but the latest repricing reduces near-term expectations for a rapid shift. For crypto traders, the main signal is sentiment drift in these USDC-linked prediction markets, with no clear evidence of a sudden volatility spike yet.