Prediction market odds don fall for Iran regime and Reza Pahlavi return

Pro-government rallies for Tehran dey happen as tension between US–Israel–Iran still dey. For prediction market, traders don cut chance for plenty political outcomes. Chance say Iranian regime go fall by June 30 drop to 7.5% (from 8%), and chance Reza Pahlavi go enter Iran by June 30 drop to 5.5% (from 6%). Term structure still show big gap: June 30 price na 5.5% while December 31 dey 14.5%, meaning any catalyst for Pahlavi return fit come later for the year. The “regime fall by May 31” contract too drop to 3.5%. All three contracts drop together, show say traders read the rallies as regime stability, not immediate internal break. Liquidity look supportive: about $35,587/day USDC for the regime-fall contract, and about $16,830 USDC to move odds by 5 points. Directional conviction low, the biggest 24-hour move na about one point. Key triggers to watch include possible IRGC activity or public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei. Prediction market odds dey drift lower despite geopolitical noise, meaning sentiment dey stabilize rather than accelerate. A YES share near 7.5¢ for a June 30 regime fall still mean high payout if e happen, but the latest repricing reduce near-term expectations for quick change. For crypto traders, main signal na sentiment drift in these USDC-linked prediction markets, with no clear evidence of sudden volatility spike yet.