Rice Prices Surge 47% as Iran War Disrupts Shipping and Fertilizer Costs

Rice prices have surged more than 47% since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, 2026, according to Hedgeye. The key driver is supply-chain disruption tied to the conflict’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route. When shipping lanes become riskier, freight costs rise and vessel insurance premiums jump, feeding into higher prices across sea-dependent supply chains. Alongside this, fertilizer prices are up roughly 40%. That higher input cost squeezes farmers’ margins and can also be passed through to food prices. India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has seen shipments fall in the first four months of 2026 versus the prior year, with basmati exports to Gulf markets hit particularly hard due to the geography of trade routes through the conflict zone. The inflation effect is extending beyond commodities into food security. Rice feeds about half the world’s population, and the article notes food inflation has been climbing steadily since the conflict began, especially in South and Southeast Asia where rice import dependence is higher. Multiple ceasefire attempts have reportedly failed as of late August 2026, suggesting the disruption may not be a short-lived shock. For commodity markets, the Iran war is adding a geopolitical risk premium. Rice prices depend largely on how the war evolves, because shipping costs, insurance rates, constrained Indian exports, and the fertilizer cost floor remain elevated.